Friday, March 29, 2013

2013 NL East Preview and Predictions

The Washington Nationals used the 2012 to capitalize on the "potential" that had been talked about for years.  A roster full of young stars energized the ballpark each and every night, and won 98 games en route to the National League East championship.

Expect more of the same in 2013.

The Nationals are once again loaded, with the best pitching staff in all of baseball, and a lineup full of guys who can hit and run as well as anyone in baseball.  Washington will look to draw on the experience of last season and their veteran manager, Davey Johnson, who is managing his final season.  The Nationals, who are the favorites in the National League, are talented enough and experienced enough to send Johnson out a winner in his final season.

Here is a quick look at all of the teams in the National League East:

ATLANTA BRAVES

Jason Heyward, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton
For years the Braves used their strong pitching staff to win division title after division title.  That strategy may still be the goal, but with a pitching staff that is young (although talented), the Braves will hope that a new and improved lineup will carry Atlanta back to the playoffs.

Gone from Atlanta are Chipper Jones, Michael Bourn and Martin Prado.  Enter the Upton brothers.  Justin Upton came to the Braves in a trade that sent Prado to Arizona.  Upton is one of the top young hitters in the game, and was an MVP candidate in 2011.  A dismal 2012 left fans wondering what happened to Upton, but the Braves are hoping a change of scenery will help.  And if the change of scenery is not enough for Justin Upton, perhaps having his older brother beside him in the outfield will help.  B.J. Upton was the first major free agent to sign this past off-season, leaving Tampa Bay to ink a big deal with Atlanta.  Upton has an amazing mix of speed and power that will more than offset the loss of Michael Bourn.

Atlanta has a couple of young arms that will be looking to break out in 2013.  Kris Medlen had a terrific 2012, going 10-1 with a 1.57 ERA in 12 starts.  Medlen pitched out of the bullpen as well, pitching a total of 138 innings, striking out 120 batters and only allowing 23 walks.  Mike Minor is the other pitcher to watch on this staff, coming off of an 11-10 season.  Minor is expected to take the next step in his career and become one of the next great Atlanta pitchers.

MIAMI MARLINS

Giancarlo Stanton
While Giancarlo Stanton may be smiling in his picture to the right, there will not be much to smile about in Marlins Park during 2013.  Miami went on a spending spree last off-season, signing as many big name free agents as they could.  This off-season, the Marlins spent all of their time unloading each of those players.

Stanton is the lone star on this team, and will struggle to produce his usual numbers due to lack of protection behind him in the lineup.  It appears that veteran Placido Polanco (103 career home runs in 15 seasons) will hit behind Stanton in the order for the Marlins.  Stanton was very vocal during the off-season about his frustrations with the management of the team, and there was even significant talk of Stanton being traded.  He will start the season with Miami, but when this team is well out of the divisional race in July, Miami could garner quite a package of prospects for the power-hitting outfielder.

If you want to find a bright spot on the Miami pitching staff, look at closer Steve Cishek, who was a part of the United States team in the World Baseball Classic.  Cishek earned 15 saves last season after taking over the closer responsibilities, and is expected to be the full-time closer in 2013.  Cishek is just 26 years old and is entering his fourth major league season.

NEW YORK METS

Ike Davis
No team has drawn more ire from their fans (including the Marlins) than the Mets have this off-season.  New York struggled during 2012 with a starting outfield that provided almost no offensive production and sub-par defensive play.  And for some strange reason, the most notable addition to the outfield was Marlon Byrd, who had been cut by two different teams in 2012.

David Wright is the leader of the Mets, and will once again be their best overall player.  But the guy on the radar screens of those who follow Major League Baseball is Ike Davis.  Davis enters 2013 after hitting 32 home runs and driving in 90 runs.  The downside to that production was his .227 batting average.  Most around the game feel that Davis is not that poor of a hitter, and that his average will probably be in the .270 range on an annual basis.  If Davis continues to produce home runs and drives in close to 100 runs, Wright could be the beneficiary as teams would be more willing to pitch to him instead of facing Davis behind him.

The Mets have a load of talented young pitchers, but the transition to the big leagues could be one that takes a year or two.  One of those guys who did not need much time to transition was Matt Harvey, who was phenomenal in 2012 after being called up to the Mets.  Jon Niese will be the Opening Day starter for the Mets in 2013, and many expect him to take the next step and have a breakout year.  Shaun Marcum was signed to a free agent deal this off-season, but injuries have already taken their toll on the pitcher, and he may miss the first week or so of the season.  Frank Francisco was scheduled to be the closer for the Mets, but he will miss the first part of the season due to injuries as well, opening the door for Bobby Parnell, who may be good enough to keep the job even when Francisco returns.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Cole Hamels
The Phillies enter the 2013 season coming off of a 2012 season that saw them finish 81-81 and in third place in the division.  Philadelphia upgraded their bullpen this off-season, and added pieces to hopefully fill holes in their lineup.  If the dominoes all fall the right way for the Phillies, a tight race with the Nationals for the division title is possible.

The Phillies have a trio of starting pitchers that will rival any top three in the league.  Perhaps the worry for Philadelphia is how their fourth and fifth starters (Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan) will perform.  Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay have a proven track record that gives the Phillies a chance to have quite a few three game winning streaks during the season.  Mike Adams was added to the Philadelphia bullpen, in hopes that he and closer Jonathan Papelbon can shorten the game with two shut-down arms at the end of the game.  Adams struggled in 2012 with Texas, but injuries seemed to be the issue, not his ability.

The Phillies added two new faces to their lineup, and both guys should be major contributors.  Michael Young comes to Philadelphia after spending his entire career with the Rangers.  Young will be the everyday third baseman and should hit fifth in the order, right behind Ryan Howard.  If Young can rebound from a disappointing 2012 season, this addition could be the most valuable of the off-season.  Ben Revere will be the new man for the Phillies in center field, and will hit near the top of the order.  Revere was acquired in a trade with the Minnesota Twins, and brings speed to the lineup that Philadelphia did not have before.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Stephen Strasburg
Although the Nationals won 98 games and won the National League East, fans will not remember the 2012 season for those successes.  Fans in Washington will remember how their best pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, was shut down due to an innings limit due to prior injuries.  The national media questioned for weeks whether or not it was the right move, but the Nationals stuck to their guns and ended his season early.

There will be no such limit in 2013, and the Nationals enter the season with one of the best starting rotations in recent history.  Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmerman, Dan Haren and Ross Detwiler enter the season with lofty expectations.  Haren was signed this past off-season in hopes he could return to the Haren of old, which won 16 games in 2011 with the Angels.  Detwiler is being touted as the next young starter to breakout in Washington, which would give the Nationals five quality starters and assure that the Nationals were never at a disadvantage in any pitching match-up.

Offensively, Bryce Harper has been ripping any pitcher he faces in Spring Training.  Harper won the National League Rookie of the Year Award in 2012, and most expect his home run and RBI totals to increase drastically in 2013.  Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche, two veterans will return to man the corner infield spots, while Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa have emerged as one of the top middle infield duos in baseball.

2013 All National League East Team

C: John Buck, Mets
1B: Ike Davis, Mets
2B: Dan Uggla, Braves
3B: David Wright, Mets
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
LF: Bryce Harper, Nationals
CF: B.J. Upton, Braves
RF: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins

SP: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
SP: Cole Hamels, Phillies
SP: Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
SP: Kris Medlen, Braves
SP: Cliff Lee, Phillies

RP: Drew Storen, Nationals
RP: Mike Adams, Phillies

CP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves

2013 Pre-Season National League East Awards

MVP: David Wright, Mets
Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Rookie of the Year: Julio Teheran, Braves

2013 Projected Order of Finish

1. Washington Nationals
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins

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