Saturday, March 30, 2013

2013 NL Central Preview and Predictions

Although the National League Central was tightly contested prior to the 2012 All-Star break, the Cincinnati Reds convincingly won the division, besting the second place Cardinals by 9 games.  The Reds won the second most games in the National League (97), but were unable to knock off the San Francisco Giants in the National League Divisional Series.

This season, the Reds enter as favorites once again, but they will be tested by not only the Cardinals and Brewers, but possibly the Pirates, who appeared to be ready to break their streak of losing seasons, but fell apart once again after the break, and wound up 18 games out of first with just 79 wins.

The Cubs will once again be in rebuilding mode, and with the Houston Astros moving out of the division, the Cubs will be the whipping boy for the rest of the division.

Here is a quick look at all of the teams in the National League Central:

CHICAGO CUBS

Jeff Samardzija
While no one is preparing the Cy Young trophy for Jeff Samardzija, there are many who expect for him to breakout in 2013 and establish himself as one of the best starters in the division.

Samardzija will be the Opening Day starter for Chicago, ahead of veterans Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson.  Samardzija finished 2012 with just a 9-13 record, but had a 3.81 ERA and struck out 180 hitters. If the Cubs want to have any chance of improving their record in 2013, Samardzija will need to have a big year and hope for help from the rest of the rotation, including former Rangers pitcher Scott Feldman.

The Cubs feature a pair of youngsters on the infield that could soon establish themselves as superstars in the Windy City.  Starlin Castro is already considered one of the top shortstops in the game today, but will need help from slugging first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who led Italy to the second round of the World Baseball Classic.  The outfield is led by veterans Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus.

CINCINNATI REDS

Joey Votto
Unless you live in Ohio, or maybe even northeast Kentucky, you may not have a great understanding as to how good the Reds' Joey Votto has been over the last few seasons.

Votto is a three-time All-Star (2010-2012) and was the 2010 National League MVP when he hit .324 with 37 home runs and drove in 113 runs.  Injuries limited Votto to just 111 games in 2012, but he hit a career high .337 with 1.041 OBPS (On-Base plus Slugging Percentage).

The Reds are not void of talent around Votto, with second baseman Brandon Phillips and outfielders Jay Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo, who was acquired in a three team trade from the Indians.  Other players, like Ryan Ludwick, Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart have flourished in this lineup over the last few seasons, and there is no reason to think it will stop now.

Cincinnati scores a lot of runs, but their pitching has been key in their winnings ways of late.  In 2012, Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto were phenomenal, with Cueto winning 19 games and Latos tallying 14 wins.  Homer Bailey (13) and Bronson Arroyo (12) each finished with double digit wins as well.  And if the Reds get to the ninth inning with a lead, they are almost assured a win with flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman closing out games, as he did 38 times in 2012.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Yovani Gallardo
If you are looking for someone in the major leagues to go from stardom to super-stardom this season, look no farther than Milwaukee.

Based on how well he pitched against the United States in the World Baseball Classic, one would think Yovani Gallardo is ready to take the next step.  Gallardo has won 33 games over the last two seasons and has four consecutive 200 strikeout campaigns.  But something appears different in his approach to the game, and Gallardo is a sleeper pick to win 20 games and the Cy Young.  Do not discount the late signing of Kyle Lohse, as he deepens an already talented rotation.

Offensively, the Brewers got terrific seasons from Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez as expected.  But it would be hard to believe that Milwaukee had any clue that guys like Jonathan Lucroy, Norichika Aoki, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez would contribute the type of production that they did.  Lucroy wound up leading the Brewers with a .320 average, albeit in just 96 games due to an injury in mid-season.  Who knows how good the season could have been, as Lucroy hit .345 before the All-Star break and his injury problems.  Aoki was a nice surprise in the outfield, as was the progression of Gomez.  Both should have big years again in 2013.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Andrew McCutchen
If the 2012 season had ended in July, we would be talking about the Pirates as the defending division champions.  Instead, Pirates fans, as well as their front office, were left frustrated with yet another losing season.

The Pirates are led by one of the most popular, if not the most popular, players in the game today, Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen, who hit .327 with 31 long balls in 2012, won the contest to see who would be on the cover of MLB 2013: The Show over the other stars in the game.  Perhaps his biggest contribution to baseball would be to lead the Pirates back to relevance and the playoffs.  The Pirates have attempted to build around their young star, but are still unable to land big name free agents.  Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones are both big time power guys, but strike out way too often to be considered a serious threat.  Russell Martin was signed in free agency, but he has never been a power threat.  If McCutchen can have an even bigger year, and young guys like Starling Marte and Travis Snider can contribute, the Pirates have the potential to duplicate their first half run of 2012 and sustain it into September and October.

A.J. Burnett will be the leader of a pitching staff that is biding its time waiting on the young arms in the minors to get to Pittsburgh.  The Pirates feature a wide array of veteran journeymen and castoffs in their rotation, including Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald and Francisco Liriano.  Jason Grilli re-signed with the team in free agency, and will be the closer entering the season.  Mark Melancon has been around the league with a few different teams, but is a quality arm out of the bullpen.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Allen Craig
The Cardinals have offensive weapons galore, but none is ready to break out like Allen Craig.  Two seasons ago, Craig made a name for himself by hitting four home runs in the postseason, helping St. Louis win a World Championship.

Craig earned more playing time in 2012, appearing in 119 games and hitting .307 with 22 home runs.  It appears that Craig will be the everyday first baseman in St. Louis in 2013, and with that comes the expectation of more offensive production.  Craig is projected by many to be one of the leaders of this team offensively, along with veterans Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran.  Yadier Molina will once again be the leader on the field in St. Louis from his position behind the plate, and a trio of youngsters, Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma and Matt Carpenter will man the infield for the first few weeks while David Freese recovers from Spring Training injuries.  Jon Jay will start the year in center field for the Cardinals, but Oscar Taveras, the top prospect in the organization, is waiting anxiously for his chance in Triple-A.

While the Cardinals will not have the services of Chris Carpenter for the entire season, and Kyle Lohse signed with division rival Milwaukee, St. Louis will not be suffering in the pitching department.  Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia will be the top two arms in the rotation, and they will be followed by Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn and prospect Shelby Miller.  Lynn had an outstanding 2012, winning 18 games and being named to the All-Star team.  Jason Motte, the closer, will be out due to injury to start the season, but Mitchell Boggs is a more than able replacement, coming off of a 2012 season where he pitched in 78 games with a 2.21 ERA.

2013 All National League Central Team

C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals
1B: Joey Votto, Reds
2B: Brandon Phillips, Reds
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
SS: Starlin Castro, Cubs
LF: Ryan Braun, Brewers
CF: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
RF: Carlos Beltran, Cardinals

SP: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
SP: Johnny Cueto, Reds
SP: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
SP: Mat Latos, Reds
SP: Jeff Samardzija, Cubs

RP: Jonathan Broxton, Reds
RP: Mitchell Boggs, Cardinals

CP: Aroldis Chapman, Reds

2013 Pre-Season National League Central Awards

MVP: Joey Votto, Reds
Cy Young: Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
Rookie of the Year: Shelby Miller, Cardinals

2013 Projected Order of Finish

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs

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